Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Trump, Churchill, and military math

Churchill had to use a form of military math back in his time.

 

On July 3rd, 1940, Churchill ordered the attack on the French Vichy navy in the naval base of Mers El Kebir, in northern Algeria (Algeria was a French dependency). Originally, the French were allies of the Brits in the war against Germany, but then France capitulated to the Germans. The Germans divided France in two: the top half was governed by the Germans; the bottom half by the French in their new base in the town of Vichy. Thus, ‘Vichy France’. The Vichy government had the Nazis as their overseers. The Vichy were allowed to have their own military, as long as they did not provoke the Nazis. The biggest, strongest part of that military was the Vichy (former French) navy. It was very powerful, so much so that it could possibly have held of any German naval threat. By contrast, not all the French had capitulated. There was the Free French led by General De Gaul, who was based at that time in the UK and was the de facto leader of the French Resistance.

 

What was Churchill to do? Here was this giant, powerful navy that could be taken over by the Nazis. Hitler was not a man of his word!  Britain appealed to Vichy France to let their navy join them in the war. They did not. Due to this, Churchill gave them simple choices: sail off to the French Caribbean, or sink your fleet, or we will sink it for you. The French did not concede. So, the Brits sank the French fleet of Mers El Kebir.

 

The math was straightforward for Churchill:

 

                        Very powerful French navy

                                              +

      Lying Hitler and compromised Vichy government

             = great threat to British naval security

 

Trump, too, used similar math recently.

 

He ordered the bombing of the nuclear plants of Iran. Why? Because there was clear evidence that they were in the process of making nuclear bombs. It was the speed that the Iranians were going about their business that was scaring both the Israelis and the Trump administration. The Iranians were in the position to, in theory at least, produce 9 nuclear weapons within two to three days. There was also the fact that Iran had supported Hamas in its attack on Israel, and had made many threats over the years against the ‘Great Satan’, the United States.

 

Let’s look at Trump’s math:

 

Iran at warp speed enrichening uranium to nuclear bomb levels   

                                             +

                      Iran’s hatred of Israel and US

                   = giant threat of immanent attack

 

It is easy for critics to pick apart both Trump and Churchill for striking an ‘enemy’ that had not actually done the evil others were projecting onto them. But that’s why we call such attacks ‘preemptive strikes’, so that they do stop an evil from happening. The Free French leader De Gaulle, although bewailing the tragedy of Mers El Kebir, concluded about the ships, “I therefore have no hesitation in saying that they are better destroyed" (“Je le dis sans ambages, il vaut mieux qu’ils aient été détruits.”) In 1956, De Gaulle reopened the prestigious national award of the Order of the Liberation, having closed it down in 1946. The recipient? Winston Churchill. The French nation rejoiced!

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